Pre-Auction Free Agent Preview 2017

Do you play to your strengths, or build on weaknesses? Are you trying to dominate hitting or pitching, or building to balance? Oh, so many decisions, especially with this crop of free agents, with so many team- changing players available. I can throw a stick at any one of them.

Stephen Strasburg

So how about this. The franchise tag for a starting pitcher this past year was $23.6M. That is the average price from the top 3 starters in the league. And while Stras isn’t a top three pitcher, it has got to be asked, “will he still be paid that price?” Not sure if anyone has looked around, but there is a serious lack of ace caliber pitchers available. Everyone wants Kershaw, but what if Stras is the next best acquisition to head your rotation…..

Potential Suitors:

• ATL has $56M, with Archer and Lackey manning the top two starting jobs. Could they build a rotation around three big studs, and try and dominate the mound every three out of five days?

• TEX also has a ton of cash to go along with a pretty well rounded offense, which could alleviate some of the hesitancy of throwing a bag full of money at Stras. A duo of Lester and Stras to anchor a rotation…. You never know….

Justin Verlander

This is my pitcher; he just continues to defy aging. Stick it entropy. For a guy brushing up on his short game in preparation for his next Senior PGA tournament, I can only imagine what his price tag will be. He’s 33. So, maybe a two year contract? Or who will go three? Will he get a big up front contract, or try and defer some money? If only we could offer an incentive-based contract. Come on Lynch, let’s get on this. Remember when was a stud though, MVP and Cy Young. Man that guy was good in his prime.

Potential Suitors:

• The NY Yankees have $17M and four free roster spots….. Anyone thinking what I’m thinking…. With some crazy strong power hitters already locked up for next season, and a strong offense being run out in the Bronx each series, NY could afford to sign a veteran starter. Having a two headed starter combo of Carmart and Verlander to anchor a rotation, and some stud relievers behind them, this team could be a challenger.

• Oh, but TB has $19M and one empty spot, and is a perennial contender. Could there be a bidding war on our horizon? Imagine a rotation of Sale, Arrieta, and Verlander. For a team that doesn’t have a ton of power potential, using that last roster spot to lock up a super-rotation might not be a bad idea.

• And of course there is always BOS, who is also flush with cash and has limited open roster spots. But BOS seems to be going young with pitching. Interesting fact: If you added up the ages of all the BOS pitchers, they still wouldn’t be as old as Verlander… But for an offense that doesn’t have a ton of holes, bringing in a top pitcher might just be the free agent signing that would vault them into the top tier of competitors.

David Ortiz- Big Papi

Now here is an interesting case study. At most, this guy will only contribute one year to his prospective team. So, knowing there is no long term commitment, and that you’ll get your money back again for the next year’s free agency, how much will someone go? $15M? $20M? Nothing says financial fluidity like knowing you can spend the same money next year as well.

Potential Suitors:

• MIA is a perpetual contender, and two time NoS Champion, so maybe this is the big splash that they will need. And for a team that has built its reputation on strong pitching, nothing says “bring it” like signing perhaps the premier offensive player to a one year deal.

• CHI just came off a year of heated battle with PIT, so maybe they retool for a quick run. Knowing that PIT is also gearing up for a strong push this year after trading for Miggy, signing Papi could be CHI’s answer. Or, maybe they really do like Max Muncy and see Papi as redundant. Who knows.

Edwin Encarnacion

A top tier, bonna fide power hitting slugger. The guy can mash. Since 2012 he’s been awesome. But those stats are all in the past, and his new team isn’t going to be able to use them. So who will pony up the money for an aging superstar, potentially in the decline of his prime? 34 ain’t that old in this man’s MLB. But then again, 34 isn’t that young either. So now we have a problem. Someone will go at least two years, right…. But do I see a three year contract out there anywhere? Will anyone go four? Will a team spend that extra cash going for 4 years to guarantee they win the auction, knowing he will fall off in only three years? Oh, how much fun is free agency. But 38 years old isn’t that old these days either…. Right…..

Potential Suitors:

• CLE might just make real life reflect the Nostalgia League. If you put Edwin into a lineup that already has Story, Kyle Seager, Kemp, Schwarber, and Joc Pederson, holy crap look out. Talk about building on what you’re good at. This team could wreak some major havoc.

• MIN has a ton of cash and a deep reserve of young pitching, with 11 starting pitchers on a rookie deal. So, logically, going out and spending on a first baseman seems appropriate. The making of a tough offense is there, and with Edwin in the mix, could make it formidable. Throw in Khris Davis, Rougie Odor and Adam Jones around Edwin, and that makes a tough middle of the lineup for any pitcher.

Dee Gordon

There is a serious hole at second base, and a serious lack of talent in this free agent class. Dee Gordon, for better or worse, could end up head-lining this position. Between 2014-15, he was a stud. A potential .300 hitter and 60 base stealer who could score 90-100 runs, then got popped for doping. There’s obviously no way of knowing when he started, or when he was actively shooting up, which makes predicting his future difficult. Illustrating this chaotic future is his batting average, which has had wild fluctuations: .304, .228, .234, .289, .333, and .268. So what team is going to take that risk, and what kind of player will they be signing?

Potential Suitors:

• MIL has a strong pitching core with Tanaka and Roark, and a ton of RPs. With some strong power hitters in Healy and Napoli, and Bour off the bench, it’s not hard to envision a tandem of Cesar Hernandez and Dee Gordon batting in the top spots in the lineup.

• SD has a TON of young pitching to build around Scherzer. And out in San Diego, there is a lot of open outfield. Get a nice slap hitter to run the basepaths, play a little small ball, steal some bases. It’s a match made in heaven. There’s a reason the infield grass of PETCO Park is an inch higher than any other ballpark…

Jean Segura

2016 was a career year for Segura. He had career highs in homers, RBI, runs scored, average, and OPS, not to mention a 5.0 WAR. Someone will definitely pay up for this guy right…. Except, until 2016 he’s never really shown this kind of offensive production. He’s been league average most of his career and only came close to this level of production back in 2013. Of course, to his credit, the very next year, 2014, Braun slammed him in his head with his bat. That did kind of derail his momentum. So, who is going to take the chance that 2016 was the real Segura….

Potential Suitors:

• WAS seems like a great fit for Segura. Which is lucky for them, because while they don’t have many holes, with only five empty roster spots there won’t be a lot of flexibility during free agency. Which brings Segura straight into the spotlight for WAS. Because while Segura is a risk as an offensive player, he is a defensive strength. He can play a good SS, but is better at 2B, which would mean that he could jump back and forth between either position based on the situation. Having that kind of flexibility in the middle infield would be a huge advantage, allowing WAS to pick up either a 2B or SS later in free agency.

• PIT could be a player for Segura as well, with perhaps needing a solid top of the order guy to get on base. PIT has some major power. Miggy, Mookie, Daniel Murphy, Granderson, even Yelich. Put Segura into the top of that lineup with his .900 OPS vs righties, that lineup could just explode.

Josh Donaldson

Donaldson is the clear highlight at 3B this free agency. The man is a beast. Since 2013, his WAR has been great: 7.6, 6.6, 8.7, 7.6. In 2016, his hard hit rate reached a career high at 40.4%. For a player with so much power as Donaldson though, what’s most striking is his plate discipline. He is below league average in swinging at pitches outside the strike zone, and by a considerable margin. Donaldson swung at a rate of 24.4%, while the average league player swung at pitches at a rate of 30.6%. And interestingly enough, he is very patient. While the league has an average wait time between pitches of 22.7 seconds, Donaldson likes to drag his feet with a pace of play around 23.3 seconds. So to summarize: Donaldson doesn’t swing at bad pitches and likes to throw the pitcher out of rhythm by taking his time in the batter box. And in his power, along with working the pitcher like a magician and forcing him to throw a pitch he likes, and suddenly you have a winning superstar recipe.

Potential Suitors:

• ARI could be a prime landing spot for Donaldson. Hitting at the top of the lineup could be the dynamic duo of Xander and Kinsler, which would set the table for a round of serious power hitters: Votto, Braun, and Adam Duvall. Throw in Donaldson to lock down 3B, and this lineup could be one of the greats. If you tend to fall on the side of playing to your strengths, then acquiring Donaldson would be a major step forward for ARI. While their pitching might be a little light, they could easily win games 15-14 all year long.

• With a wide open spot at third, PHI could be looking at Donaldson to fill a need too. Just close your eyes and imagine a lineup filled with Trout, Stanton, and Donaldson. The fans in the outfield bleachers might have to wear helmets. And with money to spare, PHI can afford to jump into the deep waters of a Donaldson bidding war. Pitching might still be a little light, but like ARI, if you score enough runs, pitching can take a back seat.

Charlie Blackmon

In the past three years, Blackmon has at least 570 abs. And in 2016, he set career highs in homers, runs, RBI, average, OBP and OPS. In regards to his OPS in fact, in 2014-15 his OPS was .775 and .797 respectively. However, in 2016 it took a notable jump to .933. While his OPS showed a significant increase though, his stolen bases were the lowest of the three-year period, as Blackmon only stole 17 bases. Looking a little deeper though, the biggest change between 2016 and his previous years was his Homerun:Flyball ratio. And while his hard-hit percentage, pull percentage, and other statistics remained the same, his power increased by a wide margin. So the question has to be asked: If the other statistics remained consistent, and the only thing that changed is the percentage of balls that went over the fence, was 2016 an aberration? Is his 29 homer potential legitimate, or was this a statistical fluke not to be repeated? Guess one lucky team will find out.

Potential Suitors:

• BAL has a solid tandem in RF and LF and could use a strong CFer. With plenty of cash and only 5 open spots themselves, they can easily afford Blackmon as well. BAL has a ton of RP and pretty decent SP1/2 in King Felix and Rodon, so the foundation for a solid staff are there. And while the infield is a little shaky, BAL has a nice platoon at 1B, as well as their future SS. So building around the outfield could make sense. Assuming Blackmon is legit, he could anchor the CF and bat right alongside future stud David Dahl and a still quickly aging superstar Hunter Pence.

• HOU would be a great fit for Blackmon. HOU has some serious power batting third and fourth in the lineup with Bryant and Cespedas. Throw in Blackmon to hit leadoff or in the 2-hole and you have the makings of a strong lineup. A 1-2-3 punch in the middle of the lineup would free up some room to go out and get some pitching and put themselves in a position to contend.

AJ Pollock

Pollock only had 41 abs in 2016, and yet he could be a premier player in this free agent class. 2015 seemed to be his breakthrough year, and everybody flocked to his side because of it. Many articles were written and a crown was placed on his head. And then….. a sever groin injury ended his 2016 campaign early, which accounted for those measly 41 abs. But for a guy who could hit 20 homers, drive in 90 runs, and steal 30+ bases, he could be expensive. He undoubtedly has potential, and if a team goes all in on him, they would be paying for the right to see that potential come to fruition. Of course, he could be a bust and be a huge salary cap black hole. But potential never comes cheap or without risk.

Potential Suitors:

• LA could use a gamble. With aging superstars Adrian Gonzalez and Zack Grienke, LA is in a prime position to take a chance with Pollock. With a year to marinate in 2016, 2017 could be a breakthrough season, with Jorge Polanco and Adam Frazier making strides. Pollock could be a nice fit for a team with some upside, and could be a center piece to build around for the future.

• SEA would also be a great fit for Pollock. For the 2016 season, SEA could still rely on the speedy superstar Billy Hamilton, as Pollock only has 41 abs, and wait for Pollock to develop. Buying Pollock now, could pay massive dividends later. So while the future upside of having Pollock man centerfield would be great, SEA would still be able to assemble a competitive team around Hamilton for the current season.

JD Martinez

Two words represent JD better than anything else: under appreciated. For a power hitter with 20+ homer potential and excellent average and defense, this guy is a complete stud. Problem is, he doesn’t ever seem to get the love he deserves. His detractors may look to his injury history as cause for concern. But the injury that stalled part of his 2016 season was caused by crashing into the right field wall. A freak injury for sure. So, assuming he doesn’t run into walls every year for the next five years or so, he could be an excellent find. Here’s hoping the rest of the league is just as wary of JD, because he could be a great deal.

Potential Suitors:

• SF could use a RF in a bad way. With some decent young pitchers and a stud first baseman in Goldy, SF could make a run in the near future, and needs to try and strike soon. Putting JD on the roster for a long term contract, pairing him with a Goldy for the next three years, and seeing if some this young pitching can turn into something decent, SF could be poised to strike. Goldy runs out in 2019, JD could be there longer, and the window to win might revolve around these two powerhouses in SF.

• OAK has a great one-two-punch at the top the lineup with Altuve and Naquin running the bases. Toss in JD batting third and running down flyballs in a vacant right field, OAK could be setting up a real nice offense. OAK has some ways to go to be super competitive, but with a core offense, OAK can then spend the next couple years and draft picks searching for pitching. JD would be a great gamble and could pay huge dividends for a team looking for an anchor.

Rick Porcello

Porcello is a 28 -year old with a career 4.20 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. But to say he hasn’t had any success is not completely accurate. He’s had flashes of great stuff, though not really strikeout potential. But strikeouts aren’t all that defines a great pitcher. During his last four years with Detroit he had well below league average homeruns per 9 and his strikeout to walk ratios were stellar. However, up until the 2016 season, his move to Boston was not all it was cracked up to be. But if you’re a betting man, and need some pitching, Porcello could be a good buy at a pretty thin position. Given, of course, that he’s not crazy expensive….

Potential Suitors:

• DET is firmly entrenched in win-now mode. They have an explosive offense and will be able to post a lot of runs. If Porcello could live up the hype he stoked in his 2016 season, he could anchor the rotation for DET as they make multiple runs at a title. Pair Porcello up with a newly resurgent Happ, and this could be a dangerous team.

• STL has a ton of young, high upside pitching: Giolito, Bauer, Velasquez, Cotton. Throw in a “veteran” that still has upside himself, and STL could be looking at a pitching dominant team. Porcello could be an anchor for this young staff as they mature into their dominance, and could be a top of the rotation guy for many years.